Pros and Cons for the most popular theories.

Hey guys,

Firstly I apologise for the long post!

I have been asking for your opinions on a few polls these last few days and I promised I was going somewhere with it! Well here it is. I just hope it doesn't disappoint!!

I have been thinking as to what to the pro and cons of hoaxing your death for certain situations would be, in the hope that it can lead us to the simplest explanation. After all, that is usually the most accurate. Lets start with the theory that Michael was in danger, because this seems to have people talking at the moment.

PROS for the "in danger" theory.


I believe that if Michael was in danger then people would be more understanding as to why he had to hoax his death. I mean it would take a pretty heartless person to not understand why someone had to do this in order to stay alive. Michael also has the advantage of the movies portraying this as well. There have been several movies which focus on someone hoaxing their death in order to escape someone who was trying to hurt them. I don't know if you have all seen "Sleeping with the enemy" staring Julia Roberts. It highlights domestic violence and how a woman had to hoax her death at sea in order to escape this. Lets have a look at "canoe man". That was a case of greed. He hoaxed his death in order to cash in his life insurance policy but he was stupid enough to come home when he decided he was home sick. Something as big as fraud is never taken lightly and you can expect people to turn on you. However, if you have NO other choice and your life is in danger, people can pretty much forgive anything that you need to do.

Michael is a Father first and foremost an has said this on several occasions. He is a father first and an entertainer second. It is my belief that if his life was in danger for any reason he would hoax his death in order to protect his children. I am sure if Michael was aware someone was out to hurt him and tried to move around there would be the chance they would catch up with him when he was with his children and they would be brought into the equation. However, if Michael hoaxed his death and had to stay out of the spotlight until the "bad guys" were brought down and in the meantime his children were with their Gran, I am sure they would be perfectly safe. Michael wouldn't leave his children in anything but the best hands.

CONS for the "in danger" theory.

Michael been in danger is a horrible thought and we don't want to think this, however we need to investigate it in order to get the full picture.

There will always be those who will never understand what it is like to be in this situation and won't have much understanding for Michael or the situation. These are the people who will continue to label him as "wacko" and will always continue to do so.

This runs the risk that Michael will never return. Where does the danger end? Who is to say that if the people are trying to hurt Michael are brought down and spend the rest of their lives in jail and they can't organise someone they are connected with to fulfil their plans? Michael is a person and not public property. He has to make sure he is safe and well and if staying away for good so he can continue to live his life with his family then that's great. We aren't selfish people and I am sure we would all rather see his happen then Michael come back to any harm.

PROS for the "movie" theory.

People would be talking about it for years and years to come. It would be one of those magical moments where you could say to your grandchildren, "I was there to witness that. I was part of history". Those very rarely happen. We have already been privileged enough to witness the wonder that was Michael in the musical world and how he pushed boundaries and pioneered things for today's artists. If he did this for a movie, he would truly establish himself as the greatest wonder the world has ever seen. Michael isn't known for been a wallflower and doesn't shy away from things. Who else could bring out a song called "Black and White" when he had suffered so much questioning from the press about his changing appearance? Michael has the balls to pull this off. He truly would be known as the artist that wasn't afraid to do anything. That is something that most artists today strive for and very rarely achieve. That's why the shelf life of a pop star today is so short lived. They don't have the guts to step away from the mainstream and take a gamble on making a name for themselves by different.

It would generate so much money. I don't mean to add this to make Michael sound like a money grabber because that's not what I am getting at. People are curious by nature and want the inside scoop on everything. Even those who wouldn't want to admit it, would want to know how this was pulled off and I am sure if it was ever to make it to cinemas, the gross amount would be off the scale. "This Is It" is set to make more than "Titanic" did and that was in it's billions. Michael's estate is set to make 90% of that. It's an insane amount of money. You would indeed never have to work again and you would have established your name in one movie. Quite ingenius really!

CONS for the "movie" theory.

I'm sure you don't need me to tell you this but the media backlash would be uncontrolable. We have seen what happened whenever Michael tried to do something as simple as grow a beard. The media scrutanised him and went out of their way to make him look stupid. Can you image what would happen if it came out this was all for a movie? I don't even want to think about it because it wouldn't be pretty but you know it would be bad.

Michael would risk losing a lot of fans and credability. As it stands at the moment, Michael is back on top and is basically considered a God. I know for the believers that think he is still alive, nothing would make us happier than Michael coming back to us. However, not everyone is that forgiving. We have to remember that people have grieved an awful lot since June 25th, even people who weren't massive Michael fans to begin with. They have spent a lot of money on Michael records, merchandise, DVD's, clothes etc etc. I wouldn't imagine it would sit too well with them if they found out this had all been done for a movie. People have been reported as commiting suicide because of this. I would imagine that was true. I remember back in the UK when a big boy band called "Take That" split up ten years ago a girl commited suicide. I believe that the people who commited suicide had underlying health problems and Michael cannot be blamed for his, however in their anger people lash out and look for someone to blame.

Michael would run the risk of his family been targeted because of this. People would want to know, and probably would find out, if the family were involved and why they went along with it for a movie. Their motives and actions since June 25th have already been questioned numerous times and for some siblings there has been a reignation of fame. Jermaine has been on LKL numerous times and is now going to judge a new talent show in the UK and La Toya is rumoured to be lauching her own range of milkshakes. This would all be taken away from them and as much as I am sure Michale disliked his family leaching off him and milking his name, he would never want them to come to any harm because of his actions. Then there are his children. The whole world and his uncle knows who they are now. I am sure there would be some sick people out there who would threaten to endanger them. Would Michael risk all this for movie? Not on your life!

PROS for the "showing the press up" theory.

The press have hounded Michael for years and made his life a living hell. I strongly believe they have a lot to do with fans turning on Michael after the 1993 and 2003 child molestation allegations. This would be the ultimate revenge. Todays stars know better than to question what they write because they have the power to make or break you. However, Michael showed that people don't scare him that easily. I am sure you have all seen the 2001 footage where he makes a stand against Sony and Tommy Matolla! He would show he wasn't a man to be crossed or messed with and if you do screw him over, sooner or later, you will get what is coming to you.

CONS for the "showing the press up" theory.

The press would NEVER let this up. They influence us so much in everyday life. We don't even realise it. They are truly one of the biggest opressers out there. They have the power to influence people every single day and if they print that someone is evil more often then not we believe them. Look at the recent case of the "balloon boy". It has been announced that the Mother of the child admitted that it was a hoax. The press latched onto this straight away and there has been talk of the children been taken away from their parents. They make it look like anyone who trys to pull something like this off is an unfit parent (I believe in the case of "balloon boy" this is the case) but Michael would most likely face the same thing. His sanity would be questioned and people who didn't believe he was "wacko" (sorry hate that word but I needed it for emphasis!) would surely believe so now. I mean if you weren't a believer, or even if you are, would you think it was right for someone to put so many people through all this for personal revenge? I am sure the answer to that from many would be no.

PROS for the "DEA" theory

Michael may most likely be seen as a hero. Drugs and celebrity deaths are a massive problem right now, none more so than the last few years. There was Anna Nicole Smith. Heather Ledger and DJ AM to name a few. Celebrities and drugs seem to go hand in hand and it is something the DEA are trying to crack down on at the moment. Someone had a great quote in a thread today that I wanted to share with you: "I don’t think Michael became a victim of the drugs, he became a solution". If this theory is to hold any weight it would take someone of Michael's magnitude and someone with his connections to try and combat this problem.

CONS for the "DEA" theory.

Michael may be seen as hard core drug abuser whose habit forced him to hoax his death in order to escape the consqueneces of taking drugs. It's easy for people to overlook the reasons why people become addicted to drugs. More often than not it's dismissed that people may have become hooked due to medical problems or after suffering a horrific injury. Drugs have a stigma attached to them and if you are a drug abuser you run the risk of people always looking down on you and thinking you are dirt.

A tarnished image. Michael's image has taken so much of a battering. He had to contend with people saying he bleached his skin, he and La Toya were the same person, he was always been questioned when it came to plastic surgery and last but not least his image was shattered when people thought he was a child abuser. Most of the world fell back in love with Michael on June 25th and for the masses they have forgotten all of the above. The press has been kinder to him then they have in years. If this was anything to do with drusg, I can see the headlines now. It wouldn't be pretty.


PROS for the "not coming back" theory.

The pros for Michael would obviosuly been able to live what he would consider a normal life with his children. We have all heard countless times how Michael stated he couldn't even go to the store or a park without been mobbed by people. He never had any peace. Can you imagine how difficult it would be to step out of your front door and have 100 cameras flashing in your face? Or how about waking up and finding that the tabloids had printed more rubbish about you. It's the darker side of fame and Michael had to contend with this for half of his life. I don't understand how he did it because I, along with many people, would have cracked a long time ago.

Michael would be able to retire from the public eye and concentrate on projects that he wanted to work on, without having distractions and people either suing him or accusing him of hatefull vicious crimes. Michael gave his all to his fans for 45 years. That is an amazingly long time when you are only 51. Even though it can be argued that Michael loved his job and lived to entertain, he deserves to be happy and have a rest.

CONS for the "not coming back" theory.

From a purely selfish fan point of view for us the main con would be Michael not coming back to us.

It's highly likely that Michael would never be able to go out of his home again without wearing a heavy disguise. Unless he had drastic plastic surgery most people would recognise him in an instant. He reached parts of the world where people don't even have a tv and I think in a recent poll it was stated that Michael, Ronald McDonald and Jesus have the most recognised faces in the world. This will only have increased since June 25th. It would be a lot of hard work to have to put on a prosetic face everytime you wanted to go out. Also, now the children's identies have been revealed everyone who is pictured with them is been questioned. I am sure if Michael was to go out with his children this would be questioned and people would begin to investigate who he was. It would only be amatter of time before it came out that it was indeed Michael.

Michael would never again be able to perform in the public eye or release anything new under his name. If a new song was to be released people would be asking where it came from. Lets take the recent release of "This Is It" as an example. As soon as it came out it was scruntanised. We all wanted to know when it was recorded and why it had a "tinny" effect to it. When it came out that Paul Anka had co-written the song it caused a massive stir. Michael would have to contend with this all the time. If we look at it from the point of view that Michael has retired from music and wants to direct film under a new name that would also pose some problems IMO. It's not easy to get your foot in the door and in Hollywood their are countless rejections. Someone with a name like Michael Jackson would have no problem getting his foot in the door, but would Joe Bloggs? Would the ideas sell because of his name? Everything attached to Michael is an instant hit. It's highly unlikely that a movie by anyone else would have the same success.

Michael is being sued left and right at the moment. I mean people are quiet literally crawling out of the woodwork to try and leach off of his estate. For the time been Michael's lawyers and executors will be doing the best they can to keep things at bay. However, who is a judge going to go in favour off? A person who is able to defend their actions or a person who is dead and cannot give their reasonings? This would cut into Katherine and the childrens inhertiance big time, something I am sure Michael would not want. I would also like to add here that Michael runs the risk of been sued by everyone because of the hoax, and not just if he doesn't return.

Conclusion.

Ok so what have we learnt from this? I hope something or I have wasted time typing all this out LOL. Ok seriously, the above is just based on my thoughts but I would like to think I am a logical person and can look at things from all perspectives. I think the cons for the "movie theory", "showing the media up theory" and the "DEA theory" outway the cons so for me they don't hold any weight as to why Michael would hoax his death.

So, by the process of elimation that leaves the theories that Michael was in danger or is not coming back. Now it doesn't take a genius to say that we won't know what the answer to this will be until Michael, assuming he does, comes back and tells us. However, these two theories are the only ones that hold any weight to me. As I said in another thread this wasn't a decision that was made on a wim or something that was taken in vain. The consequences for something as big as this are massive, whether your chose to make a comeback or not. If you make a comeback you risk losing everything, if you stay "dead" you lose the chance to live your life to it's fulliest and you will always be looking over your shoulder.

I guess we have a bumpy ride in store and I am sure more evidence will come to light in the coming months to point us in the direction of one of these theories, and I pray with all my heart we will one day find out the truth.

Anyway, I hope I haven't bored you all and as always I would love to know what you think

Rach xoxo

rach,THANK YOU for breaking it down this way,i like the logical way you have presented it,it also got me to thinking,lets say just for now you are thinking right and he doesnt come back,Will we ever know the truth whether this was a hoax or not?i am leaning towards,we will never truly know.....i dont mean to sound doubtful or as if i have lost faith,but,being logical,i see now,that u seem to be on the right track,it really helps with ALL the pros and cons listed,i havent really been able to look at it in its entirelty before.however,i am agreeing with your assessment and am going to say,no,ur right,i dont think he will be back,performing,and i had thought of the foot in the door with hollywood the other day,so,that leaves us with more doubt he would be back and starting out all over again as someone new(different face entirely)my one main thing that DOES nag at me however,is i dont think he would want to go out with the world and his fans thinking he was a drug addict(?) i could be wrong here,can u clarify that one?i would appreciate your thoughts on it,it might help me figure that part out and KNOW how i feel (firmly) thanks alot shelia

No boredom here Rach-its funny I was thinking how there needed to be like a "synopsis" thread and pros and cons with it...but I knew it would be incredibly long. HOWEVER-I wish you had wrote one for the double theory..maybe we don't have a good hold on that one yet?

@ Shelia - I honestly don't know the answer to that one. The thing that makes me believe Michael is coming back is because of the way he "died". If you wanted to hoax your death and stay away and not raise any questions there would be a million ways to do this. The most common been lost at sea.

@ neverlandprincess - I will try and put one together similar to this for the double theory if I have time

oh so you DO think he is coming back...I was under the impression you did'nt. Great post.

In all honesty, I sometimes do and I sometimes don't. My feeling change on a regular basis. However what doesn't change is the fact that I think Michael is alive

If he does come back, fantastic. If he doesn't, I have to accept that he did this for a reason that was very important to him and that he is now happy.

yea,i didnt think u figured he would be coming back,aside from that,i am thinking that truth be told,we really DONT know where the kids will be,how do we know that they wont be going to be with michael and just disappear also?as i said,the ONLY part i am pretty sure of is i dont think he would want to go out being labeled a drug addict,now,thats the only reason i am thinking he would come back,i am REALLY thinking after this post that he wont be coming back,he didnt enter into it lightly,if he is in danger,as you pointed out,HOW could he EVER be for sure that OTHERS connected to the "bad people" wouldnt do their dirty deeds for them,etc?so,yea,the lost at sea thing would have been easier possibly,but,i dontknow,the more i think about it,the more i am apt to think,he also in his older years and later time in entertainment has come to the conclusion that maybe he shouldnt care how he is labeled as he was mislabeled and misjudged at other times in his life and he SURVIVED it,and now has come the time he wouldnt bother speaking out in his defense,he would just go on with new surgery and lets face it as bad as i hate to say it,the music,the movie,the money coming in to the estate would be enough to live off of for he and his children. i dont want to bring anyone down i am just trying to think logical and put this all together.

is there ANY way this could have been as suggested in a video earlier,(?)a publicity stunt gone bad?in so far as,ok,he doesnt want to do concerts etc.so he fakes emergency and somewhere along the lines he is manipulated into HAVING to disappear or law enforcements are going to blow it for him?lets say,ok,they KNOW he didnt die,but,after it was reported by MAJOR news,cnn,tmz,etc. they basically said,ok,we have been wanting you out for a long time,now is our chance if you dont "die"we are going to make life hell for you?
forget it,no,i dont think he would succumb to that type crap,sorry,am just rambling cause i cant decide why,where,if,when, maybe i am trying to think too hard and come up with a decsion ,maybe i should just allow myself to flow between the two,yes,he'll be back,no he wont, or JUST let time tell huh?

Bless you Shelia. I feel your torment because many of us are going through the same thing and it's not nice been in "limbo".

I believe that Cassandra said this was a publicity stunt gone wrong. However I don't believe that. Firstly, if it was a way to get out of the concerts, why didn't Michael just get someone to say he had a heart attack and couldn't do the concerts? That would be much easier than pretending to die IMO.

@Rachel:



Your post is sooooooo amazing I'm in love with you!

Thank you so much for bringing sanity and logic to the Forum!

Annie, of course I will! I feel so honoured that you would want to marry me

Perfect thread! This is just the kind of picking apart we need to be doing. Not boring at all! I took a unique route and chose to read all the Cons first! That would make it all the more necessary on my part to be strong in logic as I supported the Con at the same time. I came across one that was more of a Pro for me!

If I get a chance I'll get into it later, but I enjoyed this so much!! Kudos! and thank you!

@Rach and Annie-OMG you guys-LOL
@Marsheliamorgan-I feel your pain...I love you I really do(laugh now) No in all honesty I have days where think those same thoughts-could not agree more with Rach though,one thing does not change "I think he is alive". It would have made more sense to say he had a heart attck then to pretend death. You are right Marshelia-who is to say where the kids would be going? I have honestly been expecting any week for them to just "not be in sight". Sent somewhere. The only thing is ONE DAY they will be full grown adults-will they honestly keep that secret to the grave? When they are married and have kids of their own? Seriously? And what if they go into showbiz themselves. I knwo it is not what MJ was pushing but he wasn't gonna keep them from it either. I knwo they are brilliant children and would probably be geniuses in other areas besides showbiz-but if anyone notices in all the homevideos of Paris as a little child when she was asked what she wanted to be when she grew up-"I wanna dance like daddy". Well of course,as children we all want to grow up and be famous...but these are Mjs kids and they probably do have talent. So I am so definantly sure that he would not stay away from his children-and I am sure that he wouldnt allow his kids to think he is dead forever. SO-what happens when they grow up? Something to ponder and bring insanity back-Sorry Annie. That was so not my intention-it just occured to me while I was commenting back to Marshelia.

neverlandprincess wrote:SO-what happens when they grow up? Something to ponder and bring insanity back-Sorry Annie. That was so not my intention-it just occured to me while I was commenting back to Marshelia.

I don't mind a bit of insanity here and there.
After all, if I wasn't a bit insane myself I wouldn't be posting here.

Red Velvet wrote:Perfect thread! This is just the kind of picking apart we need to be doing. Not boring at all! I took a unique route and chose to read all the Cons first! That would make it all the more necessary on my part to be strong in logic as I supported the Con at the same time. I came across one that was more of a Pro for me!

If I get a chance I'll get into it later, but I enjoyed this so much!! Kudos! and thank you!

You are very welcome I am interested to see which con you considered a pro and cannot wait to read your post!

Very good post Rach!
I have been tossing about those ideas plus the idea he may have gone off to rehab somewhere before he did end up dead.
I remember awhile back someone posted about MJ possibly being a vegetable in the hospital somewhere but that theory is null and void considering his children wouldn't be so happy and content out and about if that were the case, ya know?

First off, I agree with Annie that its proably a combination of factors and putting together different ones could maybe get us closer to da troot...

...although your Cons (@ Rach) are very realistic sounding to me.

If he or his kids lives were in danger (easy enough to believe with the "dark", mysterious Tohme around whom Michael said he was deathly afraid of), + if he had a bit of a drug dependency that he desperately wanted to shake (hence the DEA deal is made), + desiring to completely revamp his image and have the world fall in love with him again (in Ebony magazine he said how he enjoyed the 'Thriller' era for that reason), + being sick of the media trashing him (knowing they would be kinder) + knowing that people believe only what they see and wanting to revolutionize that whole thing (because perhaps he believes media is for current events and relevance etc.,), I feel its possible that all things could coincide to work out blissfully for him (barring the very realistic Cons), which brings me to your question about which Con I felt could be a Pro:

It was the first sentence in the 'Show Up the Press' section,

The press would NEVER let this up. They
influence us so much in everyday life. We don't even realise it. They
are truly one of the biggest opressers out there. They have the power
to influence people every single day and if they print that someone is
evil more often then not we believe them. Look at the recent case of
the "balloon boy". It has been announced that the Mother of the child
admitted that it was a hoax. The press latched onto this straight away
and there has been talk of the children been taken away from their
parents. They make it look like anyone who trys to pull something like
this off is an unfit parent (I believe in the case of "balloon boy"
this is the case) but Michael would most likely face the same thing.
His sanity would be questioned and people who didn't believe he was
"wacko" (sorry hate that word but I needed it for emphasis!) would
surely believe so now. I mean if you weren't a believer, or even if you
are, would you think it was right for someone to put so many people
through all this for personal revenge? I am sure the answer to that
from many would be no.

I'm thinking that it would depend upon how MJ went about it. If he would go about it in a massively powerful way, it could pack such a wollup that there would be nothing they could say. Some hoaxes have gone unretracted in the media.

Federal level involvement such that could change the world of mass media and how its despensed, which he'd possibly have support with at a Federal level, in Obama, who has been very concerned about the mass media issue too, (according to Obama's first book), because of having kids Michael's kids' age category.

Michael would have to find a way to let the world know that the press reported as fact, sources such as TMZ , which the world believed hook line and sinker, how the world saw coroner transport footage of a body appearing and disappearing and bought it hook line and sinker, etc., but it would all have to be very revolutionary in turning the press around in its practices to the point where there'd be nothing they could really say without having egg on their face (and maybe get into big trouble with fines and such).

It would go beyond simple revenge to a level of respect, and he'd be forgiven due to the combination factor of his life being in danger.

(in my fantasy) Michael would have fixed it where there's not but so much the press could say, after new 'rules' have been implimented for that very press to abide by.

MJ is said to have changed the casino industry in Vegas to allow families and children to be able to walk through, so who knows what he's capable of. Just saying, maybe it would be depending upon how he went about things. I know the mass media is another story, a much bigger fish to fry, but who knows.

I'm probably bordering on insanity for Annie's and others' comfort, it was really just a rather random thought while I was reading it is all. I again feel a combination is at work here, so I feel if it were to be the case though, it would also be combined with other factors such as life endangerment and helping to rid the world of scumbag doctors. The "press" revolt would be a side serridipity. Maybe he's killing LOTS of birds with one stone

DawneVee wrote:Very good post Rach!
I have been tossing about those ideas plus the idea he may have gone off to rehab somewhere before he did end up dead.
I remember awhile back someone posted about MJ possibly being a vegetable in the hospital somewhere but that theory is null and void considering his children wouldn't be so happy and content out and about if that were the case, ya know?

The 'rehab' theory might not be so bad tough. Especially if he could talk to his kids on a regular basis. I feel he must be or I don't see the kids being as contented as they have been seemingly from Day 1.

@Annie-yes I have to admit that as well This is our little funny farm.

I absolutely love your post Rach because it brings out all sides to everything we are talking about here. I´m a believer of the danger theory and/or he won´t be coming back, but sometimes it´s easy to get caught up in your beliefs and only seeing the pros. This makes a lot of sense and I will definitely come back to this post often, making this kind of my ABC in all of this messy hoax. It´s the perfect objective outline of all the possibilites from all points of view.

Thank you for doing this

@ RedVelvet

Thanks for taking the time out to write that down for me

I think you make some good points and you could be right, if it wasn't the sole reason that Michael planned a hoax.

I said in another thread that I believe as well as well as the main
reason there could well be subreasons as well. A chance for Michael to
kill two birds with one stone if you like.

It could very well be a combination of all factors. We just don't know!

MJFoReVeRandAlways wrote:I absolutely love your post Rach because it brings out all sides to everything we are talking about here. I´m a believer of the danger theory and/or he won´t be coming back, but sometimes it´s easy to get caught up in your beliefs and only seeing the pros. This makes a lot of sense and I will definitely come back to this post often, making this kind of my ABC in all of this messy hoax. It´s the perfect objective outline of all the possibilites from all points of view.

Thank you for doing this

You're very welcome

Sometimes it helps to have things broken down for us so we can make sense of things. I'm just glad I didn't bore you guys and it was well received because it took me about 3 hours to type up last night!

@Rach

The last thing it was, was boring. It´s very educational and I was looking forward to see what you were doing when you mentioned it in the poll threads. I didn´t think you´d finish so fast though.

Yes, you´re right. We get caught up in everything, easily, and we think that each theory is plausible and suddenly we have a big chunk of everything and it´s a mess This definitely brings things to light.

@ Rach: It's really great that you took your time to write it all together like this. Tank you Now everybody can see the pro's and con's from each theory. That's awesome, but it still leaves us with this huge pool of plausible possibities. Now what we need is something so that we can select some of those theories out. You know, so that we can get to the next "level".

Rach wrote:

PROS for the "in danger" theory.[/b][/u][/color]


I believe that if Michael was in danger then people would be more understanding as to why he had to hoax his death. I mean it would take a pretty heartless person to not understand why someone had to do this in order to stay alive. Michael also has the advantage of the movies portraying this as well. There have been several movies which focus on someone hoaxing their death in order to escape someone who was trying to hurt them. I don't know if you have all seen "Sleeping with the enemy" staring Julia Roberts. It highlights domestic violence and how a woman had to hoax her death at sea in order to escape this. Lets have a look at "canoe man". That was a case of greed. He hoaxed his death in order to cash in his life insurance policy but he was stupid enough to come home when he decided he was home sick. Something as big as fraud is never taken lightly and you can expect people to turn on you. However, if you have NO other choice and your life is in danger, people can pretty much forgive anything that you need to do.

I believe in the "danger theory" because it's been reported that MJ himself claimed that he feared for his life, he said there were people after him and he was afraid. So if he said it it's because he knew it for sure. Your points about the Pros for "danger theory" are very good. Sherlock Holmes said that an investigator should be logical and intuitive. My intuition tells me that this is the most plausible theory and that if it's true that he's alive, the world will know sooner or later.

Great post Rach! Thanks for getting it all into one place.